There is still much uncertainty as to the outcome of the 2020 Presidential Election. As of this writing, outcomes are still yet to be determined in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This could last for hours, days or weeks.
I don’t have a crystal ball to know what will happen. But there are trends that talk radio should be encouraged by.
Most importantly, the “blue wave” that many Democrats and media members insisted was going to happen did not happen. Joe Biden may beat Donald Trump, but it will be by a slim margin. The Republicans look like they will hold onto the U.S. Senate. And the Republicans have also picked up some unexpected House seats.
Much has already been made of how colossally wrong the polling data was, once again, for a second-straight Presidential Election cycle. There were several polls that finished this past week with Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by five points in Florida, and Pennsylvania and Michigan by seven. Trump won Florida by more than he did four years ago, and even if he loses the latter two states, it will be by a point or two. These polls were off by nearly double digits.
So why did this happen and what does that mean for our business?
It’s all good news.
The notion that conservative principles are falling by the wayside in 21st Century America is not true. Oh, and the notion that those who still believe in those principles are nothing but 65+ year-old white males, is also not true. That is good for programmers and sales managers moving forward as it relates to news talk radio.
This election has shown that the American people are not “down” with the woke movement that is sweeping across the nation and they will be continuing to look for outlets and information to push back against this movement. Also, the Republican Party is slowly becoming a more diverse and “big tent” party. In many ways, it’s becoming a working class, multi-racial party.
Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio put it very well on Wednesday morning when he tweeted out: “Trump lost #MiamiDade by 30% in 2016. A multi-ethnic working class coalition in #MiamiDade cut that margin 7% in 2020. That’s the future for the #GOP.”
That’s right. And it also can be the future for talk radio, but with a caveat: the folks in charge in the business need to also see those trends and believe it and then invest to find that audience.
Donald Trump and the Republican Party also had a better night with certain groups per some exit polls than probably many media executives would expect. Per this CNN exit polling data, Donald Trump made the most gains in 30-44 year olds, where he lost by 10 points to Hillary Clinton, but closed the gap to seven points this time around.
What programmer wouldn’t take more of the 30-44 year olds in the marketplace right now?
Then, his lead actually shrunk with the 65+ crowd from +7 to +3.
Also per that exit poll, Donald Trump lost double digits with white men (from +31 to +18), but gained in white women, black men, latino men, black women and Latina women.
Granted, outside of white women (Trump +12), the other groups still heavily favored Joe Biden, but the trends were still in a positive direction for Trump and Republicans.
These voters and potential listeners are out there and would consume our content. They are disenfranchised with what they would call the “mainstream media”. That isn’t going anywhere even in a post-Trump world.
The question now becomes will radio invest in itself enough from a programming and marketing perspective to find these voters and theoretical listeners? The trends would suggest they should and would be wise to (example: just look at some of the digital growth for, as an example, Ben Shapiro’s Daily Wire), but it remains to be seen if radio will see that this audience is out there, is growing in the coveted target demo, and wants to get them to their platforms.
